The spatial-temporal pattern, trend prediction and influencing factors of market segmentation: A case study of 287 cities in China

ZHUANG Rulong; ZHI Menglu; ZHANG Chaoyang; YANG Jie

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-06-017

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The spatial-temporal pattern, trend prediction and influencing factors of market segmentation: A case study of 287 cities in China

更新时间：2026-01-02

- The spatial-temporal pattern, trend prediction and influencing factors of market segmentation: A case study of 287 cities in China
- Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition) Vol. 55, Issue 6, Pages: 1410-1428(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.宁波大学　商学院，浙江　宁波　315211
  2.江南大学　商学院，江苏　无锡　214122
  3.南京大学　商学院，江苏　南京　210008
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-06-017
  CLC： F124
- Received：14 August 2025，
  
  Published：25 December 2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
ZHUANG Rulong, ZHI Menglu, ZHANG Chaoyang, et al. The spatial-temporal pattern, trend prediction and influencing factors of market segmentation: A case study of 287 cities in China[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2025, 55(6): 1410-1428.
DOI：

ZHUANG Rulong, ZHI Menglu, ZHANG Chaoyang, et al. The spatial-temporal pattern, trend prediction and influencing factors of market segmentation: A case study of 287 cities in China[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2025, 55(6): 1410-1428. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-06-017.

摘要

打破市场分割，加快建设国内统一大市场，不仅有利于资源和要素在更大范围内畅通流动，而且是释放内需潜力、充分发挥全国超大规模市场独特优势的重要抓手。基于2011—2021年全国287个城市的居民消费价格指数，利用相对价格法构造全国各城市的市场分割指数，从多元视角对全国市场分割水平的时空格局演变特征进行分析，并利用空间计量模型实证检验影响市场分割水平的因素。研究发现：①全国市场分割水平呈现出波动下降的趋势，且在不同区域表现出空间异质性，具体而言，西部地区的市场分割水平长期维持在较高水平，东部地区偶尔跃居首位，而中部地区则长期处于较低的市场分割水平；②国内市场分割的空间集聚特征呈现“先减弱，后增强，再减弱”的波动变化趋势，对比首尾2年发现，两极化趋势显著降低；③通过趋势预测发现，国内大多数省份未来的市场一体化水平都将有所提升，只有山东、山西、陕西等个别省份的市场分割水平出现了递增；④根据回归结果，全国287个城市间的市场分割存在显著正向的空间溢出效应；⑤提高人均实际收入水平和公共服务水平有助于破除市场分割壁垒，财政分权和外商直接投资则在一定程度上会加速市场分割。

Abstract

Breaking market segmentation and speeding up the construction of a unified domestic market are not only conducive to the smooth flow of resources and factors in a wider scope

but also an important starting point for releasing the potential of domestic demand and giving full play to the unique advantages of the national super-large-scale market. Based on the consumer price index of 287 cities in China from 2011 to 2021

this paper constructs the market segmentation index of cities in China by using the relative price method

describes and analyzes the evolution characteristics of the spatial-temporal pattern of the national market segmentation level from a pluralistic perspective

and empirically tests the factors affecting the market segmentation level by using the spatial econometric model. The findings are as follows: ① The national market segmentation level shows a trend of fluctuation and decline

and it shows spatial heterogeneity in different regions. Specifically

the level of market segmentation in the western region has remained consistently high

while the eastern region occasionally ranks first

and the central region has consistently maintained a relatively low level of market segmentation. ②The spatial agglomeration characteristics of domestic market segmentation show a fluctuating trend of "first weakening

then strengthening

and then weakening"

and it is found that the polarization trend decreased significantly compared with the first and last two years; ③ Through the trend forecast

the future market integration level of most provinces in China will be improved

and only individual provinces

such as Shandong

Shanxi

Shaanxi have an increasing market segmentation level; ④ According to the regression results

the market segmentation among 287 cities in China has a significant positive spatial spillover effect; ⑤ Rising per capita real income and improving public service level contribute to dismantling market segmentation barriers

whereas fiscal decentralization and foreign direct investment may

to some extent

accelerate market segmentation.

关键词

Keywords

references

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