Spatial temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of multi-scale population shrinkage in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin

GAO Wei; ZHAO Xinzheng; LI Tongsheng; YANG Liya

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-012

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Spatial temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of multi-scale population shrinkage in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin

Ecological conservation and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin | 更新时间：2025-09-03

- Spatial temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of multi-scale population shrinkage in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin
- Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition) Vol. 55, Issue 4, Pages: 833-849(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.中国人民大学　公共管理学院，　北京　100872
  2.西北大学　城市与环境学院，陕西　西安　710127
  3.西北大学　陕西省黄河研究院，陕西　西安　710127
  4.陕西省情研究院，陕西　西安　710127
  5.陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室，陕西　西安　710127
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-012
  CLC： K901
- Received：16 May 2025，
  
  Published：25 August 2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
GAO Wei, ZHAO Xinzheng, LI Tongsheng, et al. Spatial temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of multi-scale population shrinkage in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of northwest university (natural science edition), 2025, 55(4): 833-849.
DOI：

GAO Wei, ZHAO Xinzheng, LI Tongsheng, et al. Spatial temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of multi-scale population shrinkage in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of northwest university (natural science edition), 2025, 55(4): 833-849. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-012.

摘要

中国已进入人口负增长时代，识别及引导人口有效收缩成为国土空间规划与治理的重要命题。该研究使用第五、六和七次全国人口普查分县数据，采用空间自相关分析，OLS线性回归的方法，分别从市县村3个尺度分析了2000—2020年黄河流域陕西段人口收缩的时空特征与影响因素，在此基础上提炼多重尺度下的黄河流域陕西段人口收缩机制。结果表明：①不同尺度人口收缩呈现不同的空间异质性特征，高级尺度空间量化结果不能代表其所辖的低级尺度空间；②陕北形成了东部收缩带以及榆林—延安交界处收缩带的“T”字形收缩区域，关中收缩轴带以西安市主城区及长安区为中心向周围区县圈层式扩散；③在区县尺度上，产业结构是抑制收缩的根本动力，老龄化与人口收缩互为因果，省域集聚与公服水平是县域收缩的相关要素；④在村域尺度上，产业发展是减轻收缩的核心要素，人口结构与村域收缩显著相关，土地集约、小学教育与地理集聚与村域收缩高度相关。该研究结论为黄河流域陕西段国土空间的开发保护提供科学支撑，对黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展具有现实意义。

Abstract

China officially entered an era of negative population growth in 2022. This paper utilizes data from the fifth

sixth

and seventh national population censuses and applies methods such as spatial autocorrelation analysis and OLS linear regression to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of population shrinkage in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 at the city

county

and village scales. On this basis

a multi-scale framework for the mechanisms of population shrinkage in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin is constructed. The results indicate the following: ① Population shrinkage exhibits spatial heterogeneity at different scales

and spatial quantification at higher scales does not represent the spatial dynamics at lower scales. ② In northern Shaanxi

a "T"-shaped shrinkage zone has formed

consisting of an eastern shrinkage belt and a shrinkage zone at the junction of Yulin and Yan'an city. The shrinkage axis in the Guanzhong region primarily radiates outward from the central urban area of Xi'an city and Chang'an District in a concentric diffusion pattern. ③ At the county scale

industrial structure is the fundamental driving force in curbing population shrinkage

while aging and population decline are mutually reinforcing. Provincial-level aggregation and public service levels are correlated with county-level shrinkage. ④At the village scale

industrial development is the key factor in mitigating shrinkage. Population structure is significantly related to village-level shrinkage

while land intensification

primary education

and geographic clustering are highly correlated with village shrinkage. The findings of this study provide scientific support for the spatial development and protection of the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin and hold practical significance for promoting high-quality development in the region.

关键词

Keywords

references

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