Quantitative attribution of influence of human activities on runoff change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River——A case study of Kuye River Basin

HE Yi; JIANG Xiaohui; HU Xiyou; YUAN Zhang; XU Xinwen

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-009

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Quantitative attribution of influence of human activities on runoff change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River——A case study of Kuye River Basin

Ecological conservation and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin | 更新时间：2025-09-03

- Quantitative attribution of influence of human activities on runoff change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River——A case study of Kuye River Basin
- Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition) Vol. 55, Issue 4, Pages: 798-807(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.自然资源部矿山地质灾害成灾机理与防控重点实验室，陕西　西安　710054
  2.西北大学城市与环境学院，陕西　西安　710127
  3.陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室，陕西　西安　710127
  4.西安市黄河流域环境模拟及生态健康重点实验室，陕西　西安　710127
  5.陕西省生态地质调查中心，陕西　西安　710068
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-009
  CLC： P333
- Received：11 May 2025，
  
  Published：25 August 2025
- 稿件说明：
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HE Yi, JIANG Xiaohui, HU Xiyou, et al. Quantitative attribution of influence of human activities on runoff change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River——A case study of Kuye River Basin[J]. Journal of northwest university (natural science edition), 2025, 55(4): 798-807.
DOI：

HE Yi, JIANG Xiaohui, HU Xiyou, et al. Quantitative attribution of influence of human activities on runoff change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River——A case study of Kuye River Basin[J]. Journal of northwest university (natural science edition), 2025, 55(4): 798-807. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-009.

摘要

黄河流域作为中华文明的重要发源地，不仅是中国生态安全体系的关键组成部分，亦是人口聚集和经济活动的重要区域。在国家整体发展格局及社会主义现代化建设进程中，该流域占据着至关重要的战略地位，对区域可持续发展和生态安全具有深远影响。气候变化和人类活动对河川径流产生综合影响，不易区分它们各自对径流变化的贡献。该研究利用1960—2021年黄河中游窟野河流域温家川水文站62年气候、径流资料，建立了一种基于相似降水量和潜在蒸散发量配对年组的方法来定量评估人类活动对河川径流的影响。配对年组的相似气候前提由相似的数量（年际差异小于2.0%）和相似的过程（年内变化显著性水平小于0.05）来表征。结果表明，在研究时段内，径流在4个配对年组中，2组呈下降趋势，另外2组呈上升趋势。利用研究区土地利用/土地覆被等资料进行分析，可以很好地定量解释人类活动对窟野河流域径流变化的影响。该方法可与传统的水文研究方法相结合使用，更好地为流域水资源管理提供理论依据。

Abstract

The Yellow River Basin is an important birthplace of the Chinese nation and Chinese civilization

constitutes an important ecological security barrier in China

and is also an important region for population activities and economic development

and has a pivotal strategic position in the overall situation of national development and socialist modernization. Climate change and human activities have combined effects on runoff

and it is difficult to distinguish their respective contributions to runoff change. Based on 62 years of climate and runoff data from Wenjiachuan hydrology Station in the Kuye River Basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1960 to 2021

a method based on paired years groups of similar precipitation and potential evapotranspiration was established to quantitatively assess the influence of human activities on runoff. The similar climate premises of the paired year groups were characterized by similar quantities (interannual difference less than 2.0%) and similar processes (significance level of annual change less than 0.05). The results showed that

during the study period

the runoff in 2 groups showed a downward trend and the other 2 groups showed an upward trend. Using land use/land cover analysis

the effects of human activities on runoff change in the Kuye River Basin can be well explained quantitatively. This method can be combined with the traditional hydrological methods to provide a better theoretical basis for water resources management in the basin.

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