黄河下游引黄灌区水-能源-粮食复合系统安全测度与提升路径

李佳琪; 江恩慧; 屈博

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-020

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黄河下游引黄灌区水-能源-粮食复合系统安全测度与提升路径

人地系统科学 | 更新时间：2026-07-27

- 黄河下游引黄灌区水-能源-粮食复合系统安全测度与提升路径
- Security measurement and improvement path of water-energy-food system in the irrigation area of the Lower Yellow River
- 西北大学学报（自然科学版） 2026年56卷第4期页码：941-956
- 作者机构：
  
  1.郑州大学　水利与交通学院，河南　郑州　450001
  2.黄河水利科学研究院，河南　郑州　450003
  3.水利部黄河重点实验室，河南　郑州　450003
- 作者简介：
  
  李佳琪，女，博士研究生，从事水文学及水资源、流域系统科学研究，jq2416571171@163.com。
  屈博，男，博士，高级工程师，从事水文学及水资源、流域系统科学研究，qubo_edu_hohai@163.com。
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金(U2243601);河南省软科学研究项目(262400411318);郑州大学青年学生基础研究项目（博士研究生）(ZDBJ2026067)
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-020
  中图分类号： TV213.4
- 收稿：2025-11-08，
  
  修回：2026-01-10，
  
  纸质出版：2026-08-25
- 稿件说明：
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李佳琪, 江恩慧, 屈博. 黄河下游引黄灌区水-能源-粮食复合系统安全测度与提升路径[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026,56(4):941-956.

Li Jiaqi, Jiang Enhui, Qu Bo. Security measurement and improvement path of water-energy-food system in the irrigation area of the Lower Yellow River[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2026, 56(4): 941-956.
李佳琪, 江恩慧, 屈博. 黄河下游引黄灌区水-能源-粮食复合系统安全测度与提升路径[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026,56(4):941-956. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-020.

Li Jiaqi, Jiang Enhui, Qu Bo. Security measurement and improvement path of water-energy-food system in the irrigation area of the Lower Yellow River[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2026, 56(4): 941-956. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-020.

摘要

提高水-能源-粮食复合系统安全水平是保障黄河下游引黄灌区资源合理配置利用与可持续发展的重要前提。利用五元联系数测度2009—2023年黄河下游引黄灌区水-能源-粮食复合系统安全水平，并通过模糊集定性比较分析法识别提升复合系统安全水平的组态路径。研究发现：①粮食子系统安全水平最高，由Ⅲ级临界状态向Ⅳ级较安全状态转变，能源子系统安全水平最低，整体处于Ⅱ级较不安全状态；②引黄灌区复合系统整体处于Ⅳ级较安全状态，个别城市个别年份处于Ⅱ级较不安全状态；③共有5条等效的组态路径可以驱动产生高安全水平，各地区未来需根据自身发展情况采取相应措施。从组态视角研究各影响因素间的互动关系，在一定程度上推动了复合系统安全研究从单一权变向整体多维视角转变，研究结论可为黄河下游引黄灌区水-能源-粮食复合系统安全发展提供理论依据及决策参考。

Abstract

Improving the security level of the water-energy-food (WEF) composite system is important for ensuring the rational allocation and utilization of resources and sustainable development of the irrigation area in the Lower Yellow River. The security level of the WEF system in the irrigation area of the Lower Yellow River from 2009 to 2023 was measured using five-element connection number

and the configuration path to improve the security level of the composite system was identified through fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). The results showed that: ①The security level of the food subsystem was the highest

transitioning from level Ⅲ to level Ⅳ

while the safety level of the energy subsystem was the lowest

overall in an unsafe state of level Ⅱ. ②The overall composite system of the irrigation area in the Lower Yellow River is in a critical state of level Ⅳ

and some cities and years are in an unsafe state of level Ⅱ. ③There are a total of five configuration paths that can generate high security levels

each region needs to make measures based on its own development situation in the future. Studying the interactive relationship between various influencing factors from a configuration perspective has to some extent promoted the transformation of security research on composite system from a single contingency perspective to a holistic multi-dimensional perspective. The research conclusion can provide theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the security development of the WEF system in the irrigation area of the Lower Yellow River.

关键词

Keywords

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