基于土地利用变化的北方农牧交错带生境质量时空演变及模拟预测

邹亚锋; 罗锋; 杜平平; 陈甜; 吴聘奇; 唐菲

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-014

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基于土地利用变化的北方农牧交错带生境质量时空演变及模拟预测

人地系统科学 | 更新时间：2026-07-27

- 基于土地利用变化的北方农牧交错带生境质量时空演变及模拟预测
- Spatio-temporal evolution and simulation prediction of habitat quality in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China based on land use change
- 西北大学学报（自然科学版） 2026年56卷第4期页码：854-867
- 作者机构：
  
  1.福州大学　环境与安全工程学院，福建　福州　350108
  2.自然资源部海岛研究中心，福建　平潭　350400
- 作者简介：
  
  邹亚锋，男，教授，博士生导师，从事国土空间规划与土地可持续利用研究，T22007@fzu.edu.cn。
  罗锋，男，从事国土空间规划与土地可持续利用研究，1870064530@qq.com。
- 基金信息：
  
  福建省自然科学基金面上项目(2024J01275);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(24FGLB058)
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-014
  中图分类号： F301.24
- 收稿：2025-12-25，
  
  修回：2026-01-21，
  
  纸质出版：2026-08-25
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
邹亚锋, 罗锋, 杜平平, 等. 基于土地利用变化的北方农牧交错带生境质量时空演变及模拟预测[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026,56(4):854-867.

Zou Yafeng, Luo Feng, Du Pingping, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and simulation prediction of habitat quality in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China based on land use change[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2026, 56(4): 854-867.
邹亚锋, 罗锋, 杜平平, 等. 基于土地利用变化的北方农牧交错带生境质量时空演变及模拟预测[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026,56(4):854-867. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-014.

Zou Yafeng, Luo Feng, Du Pingping, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and simulation prediction of habitat quality in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China based on land use change[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2026, 56(4): 854-867. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-014.

摘要

明确土地利用变化及其对生境质量影响，对生态脆弱区生态文明建设与可持续发展具有重要意义。以北方农牧交错带为例，通过转移矩阵揭示1980—2020年土地利用变化特征；结合InVEST模型与热点分析探究生境质量时空演变特征，并量化土地利用变化对生境质量的影响；借助CA-Markov模型模拟预测2040年生境质量状况。结果表明：①北方农牧交错带主要地类为草地、耕地、林地，研究时段内东北部地区为土地利用集中变化区域。耕地与草地相互转化是土地利用变化的主要特征。土地利用变化呈现草地减少、耕地小幅增长、林地波动减少、建设用地显著增加，而水域与未利用地相对稳定的特点；②北方农牧交错带生境质量空间差异显著，生境质量热点区位于南部边界，冷点区位于东北部与中部。生境质量整体水平相对较低，较低水平生境质量占主导地位；③耕地向林地和未利用地转化，以及未利用地向草地转化，对生境质量提升起到关键作用，草地向耕地转化则导致生境质量下降；④CA-Markov模型适用于研究区土地利用模拟，2040年北方农牧交错带建设用地与未利用地面积呈增加趋势。区域生境质量则呈下降趋势，中低水平生境质量面积进一步扩大，高水平生境质量面积则减少16 147.30 km

，亟需采取保护措施提升生境质量。研究结果可为北方农牧交错带可持续发展和生态环境保护提供理论参考。

Abstract

Land use change and its impact on habitat quality play a crucial role in the development of ecological civilization and the promotion of sustainable development in ecologically fragile regions. Taking the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China as a case

this study analyzes land use change characteristics from 1980 to 2020 using a transition matrix. It also explores the spatio-temporal evolution of habitat quality by combining the InVEST model with hotspot analysis and quantifies the influence of land use change on habitat quality. Furthermore

the CA-Markov model is employed to simulate and predict the habitat quality status in 2040. The research has four results. ① The main land use types in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China are grassland

cultivated land

and forestland. During the study period

significant changes in land use patterns were observed

with the northeastern region being the area of concentrated land use change. The main characteristic of land use change is the mutual conversion between cultivated land and grassland. The changes in land use are marked by a reduction in grassland

a slight increase in cultivated land

a decrease in forestland and a significant increase in built-up land. ② Habitat quality in the study area exhibits notable spatial variation

with hotspots concentrated along the southern boundary and cold spots found in the northeastern and central regions. The overall habitat quality level is relatively low

with areas of low habitat quality being the most prevalent. ③ The conversion of cultivated land to forest and unused land

as well as unused land to grassland

plays a crucial role in improving habitat quality

while the conversion of grassland to cultivated land leads to a decline in habitat quality. ④ The CA-Markov model is suitable for simulating land use in the study area. By 2040

both built-up land and unused land in the study area are expected to increase. Habitat quality in the region

is predicted to decline

with low to medium habitats expanding and high quality habitat decreasing by 16

147.30 km

. Urgent protective measures are needed to enhance habitat quality. The findings provide theoretical references for the sustainable development of land resources and ecological environmental protection in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China.

关键词

Keywords

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