新型城镇化驱动农业高质量发展的作用机理与效应评估：基于262个地级市的准自然实验

苏芳; 舒琪; 许宇轩

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-007

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

新型城镇化驱动农业高质量发展的作用机理与效应评估：基于262个地级市的准自然实验

人地系统科学 | 更新时间：2026-07-27

- 新型城镇化驱动农业高质量发展的作用机理与效应评估：基于262个地级市的准自然实验
- Mechanism and impact evaluation of new-type urbanization driving high-quality agricultural development: Evidence from 262 prefecture-level cities
- 西北大学学报（自然科学版） 2026年56卷第4期页码：753-768
- 作者机构：
  
  西北大学　经济管理学院，陕西　西安　710127
- 作者简介：
  
  苏芳，女，教授，博士生导师，从事区域经济、生态经济等研究，sufang@nwu.edu.cn。
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金(72034007;72442020);陕西省哲学社会科学研究专项(2026HZ0887);陕西省博士后科研项目(2024BSHSDZZ013)
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-007
  中图分类号： F322
- 收稿：2025-12-10，
  
  修回：2026-01-13，
  
  纸质出版：2026-08-25
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
苏芳, 舒琪, 许宇轩. 新型城镇化驱动农业高质量发展的作用机理与效应评估：基于262个地级市的准自然实验[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026,56(4):753-768.

Su Fang, Shu Qi, Xu Yuxuan. Mechanism and impact evaluation of new-type urbanization driving high-quality agricultural development: Evidence from 262 prefecture-level cities[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2026, 56(4): 753-768.
苏芳, 舒琪, 许宇轩. 新型城镇化驱动农业高质量发展的作用机理与效应评估：基于262个地级市的准自然实验[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026,56(4):753-768. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-007.

Su Fang, Shu Qi, Xu Yuxuan. Mechanism and impact evaluation of new-type urbanization driving high-quality agricultural development: Evidence from 262 prefecture-level cities[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2026, 56(4): 753-768. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-04-007.

摘要

剖析新型城镇化对农业高质量发展的作用机理，是以城乡融合发展带动乡村全面振兴、探寻农业农村现代化有效驱动路径的重要研究议题。为科学考察新型城镇化试点政策对农业高质量发展的影响效应，基于2011—2022年262个地级市的面板数据，采用渐进双重差分法评估新型城镇化在农业高质量发展中的政策驱动效应。结果表明，新型城镇化政策显著促进农业绿色全要素生产率的提升，这种促进效应在地理位置、功能分区、以及经济发展水平等维度上表现出显著差异；新型城镇化政策能够通过缩小城乡收入差距、促进数字普惠金融发展以及提升人力资本水平来有效推动农业高质量发展。研究结果有助于探索区域间差异化的新型城镇化推进路径，为农业现代化建设提供理论参考。

Abstract

Examining the mechanism through which new-type urbanization influences high-quality agricultural development is a crucial research topic. It is essential for achieving comprehensive rural revitalization through urban-rural integration and for identifying effective pathways to modernize agriculture and rural areas. To scientifically examine the impact of the new-type urbanization pilot policy on high-quality agricultural development

this study employs a staggered Difference-in-Differences model on panel data from 262 prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2022. The results show that new-type urbanization can significantly enhance agricultural green total factor productivity

with notable variations related to geographical location

functional zoning

and economic development levels. New-type urbanization policy facilitates high-quality agricultural development through three primary pathways: Narrowing the urban-rural income gap

promoting digital inclusive finance

and improving human capital. The findings of this study contribute to exploring regionally differentiated pathways for advancing new-type urbanization and provide theoretical references for agricultural modernization efforts.

关键词

Keywords

references

龚锐 , 谢黎 , 王亚飞 . 农业高质量发展与新型城镇化的互动机理及实证检验 [J ] . 改革 , 2020 ( 7 ): 145 - 159 .

Gong R , Xie L , Wang Y F . Interactive mechanism and empirical test of agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization [J ] . Reform , 2020 ( 7 ): 145 - 159 .

郭晨 , 张卫东 . 产业结构升级背景下新型城镇化建设对区域经济发展质量的影响——基于PSM-DID经验证据 [J ] . 产业经济研究 , 2018 ( 5 ): 78 - 88 .

Guo C , Zhang W D . The impact of new-type urbanization construction on the quality of regional economic development under the background of industrial structure upgrading: Empirical evidence based on PSM-DID [J ] . Industrial Economics Research , 2018 ( 5 ): 78 - 88 .

吴青山 , 吴玉鸣 , 郭琳 . 新型城镇化对劳动力错配的影响：理论分析与经验辨识 [J ] . 经济评论 , 2022 ( 5 ): 67 - 82 .

Wu Q S , Wu Y M , Guo L . The impact of new urbanization on labor misallocation: Theoretical analysis and empirical identification [J ] . Economic Review , 2022 ( 5 ): 67 - 82 .

杨宇 , 赵婉旭 , 伍骏骞 , 等 . 新型城镇化的共同富裕效应——基于国家新型城镇化综合试点政策的分析 [J ] . 农业经济问题 , 2025 ( 3 ): 46 - 61 .

Yang Y , Zhao W X , Wu J Q , et al . The common prosperity effect of new urbanization: An analysis based on the national comprehensive pilot policy of new urbanization [J ] . Issues in Agricultural Economy , 2025 ( 3 ): 46 - 61 .

朱晓娴 , 王艳伟 , 池江涛 , 等 . 新型城镇化对碳全要素生产率的影响 [J ] . 环境科学 , 2025 , 46 ( 9 ): 5512 - 5523 .

Zhu X X , Wang Y W , Chi J T , et al . Impact of new urbanization on total factor productivity of carbon [J ] . Environmental Science , 2025 , 46 ( 9 ): 5512 - 5523 .

蒋正云 , 胡艳 . 中部地区新型城镇化与农业现代化耦合协调机制及优化路径 [J ] . 自然资源学报 , 2021 , 36 ( 3 ): 702 - 721 .

Jiang Z Y , Hu Y . Coupling and coordination between new urbanization and agricultural modernization in Central China [J ] . Journal of Natural Resources , 2021 , 36 ( 3 ): 702 - 721 .

杨玉珍 , 唐明富 , 许宁 . 城乡融合赋能农业新质生产力：影响机制与空间溢出效应 [J ] . 商业研究 , 2025 ( 6 ): 75 - 87 .

Yang Y Z , Tang M F , Xu N . Empowering new quality productivity in agriculture through urban-rural integration: Impact mechanism and spatial spillover effects [J ] . Commercial Research , 2025 ( 6 ): 75 - 87 .

周利平 , 辛婷 . 新型城镇化建设对我国农业经济韧性的影响研究——基于空间双重差分模型的实证分析 [J ] . 中国生态农业学报(中英文) , 2025 , 33 ( 4 ): 807 - 819 .

Zhou L P , Xin T . The impact of new urbanization construction on the resilience of China's agricultural economy: Empirical analysis based on the spatial difference-in-differences model [J ] . Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture , 2025 , 33 ( 4 ): 807 - 819 .

武宵旭 , 葛鹏飞 , 徐璋勇 . 城镇化与农业全要素生产率提升：异质性与空间效应 [J ] . 中国人口•资源与环境 , 2019 , 29 ( 5 ): 149 - 156 .

Wu X X , Ge P F , Xu Z Y . Urbanization and the promotion of agricultural total factor productivity: Heterogeneity and spatial effect [J ] . China Population, Resources and Environment , 2019 , 29 ( 5 ): 149 - 156 .

刘涛 , 杜思梦 . 基于新发展理念的农业高质量发展评价指标体系构建 [J ] . 中国农业资源与区划 , 2021 , 42 ( 4 ): 1 - 9 .

Liu T , Du S M . The construction of high-quality development evaluation index system of agricultural based on new development concept [J ] . Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning , 2021 , 42 ( 4 ): 1 - 9 .

史常亮 . 土地流转对农业高质量发展的影响——基于绿色全要素生产率视角 [J ] . 自然资源学报 , 2024 , 39 ( 6 ): 1418 - 1433 .

Shi C L . Impact of land transfer on high-quality agricultural development: Analysis based on the green TFP perspective [J ] . Journal of Natural Resources , 2024 , 39 ( 6 ): 1418 - 1433 .

刘晓瑞 , 杨燕 , 剌美香 , 等 . 数字经济对农业高质量发展的影响研究——基于山西省2012—2022年面板数据的分析 [J ] . 中国农业资源与区划 , 2025 , 46 ( 9 ): 155 - 164 .

Liu X R , Yang Y , La M X , et al . Research on the impact of digital economy on high quality development of agriculture: Analysis based on panel data of Shanxi Province from 2012 to 2022 [J ] . Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning , 2025 , 46 ( 9 ): 155 - 164 .

肖莉 , 张艺航 , 丁嘉仪 , 等 . 长江经济带数字新质生产力与农业高质量发展耦合关系及时空演化 [J ] . 长江流域资源与环境 , 2025 , 34 ( 12 ): 2686 - 2696 .

Xiao L , Zhang Y H , Ding J Y , et al . Coupling relationship and spatio-temporal evolution between digital new-qualitative productivity and high-quality agricultural development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt [J ] . Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin , 2025 , 34 ( 12 ): 2686 - 2696 .

印静 , 王婧 , 李裕瑞 . 中国县域城镇化和乡村发展的地域差异与协同类型 [J ] . 西北大学学报(自然科学版) , 2025 , 55 ( 4 ): 912 - 931 .

Yin J , Wang J , Li Y R . Regional differences and synergistic types of county-based urbanization and rural development in China [J ] . Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition) , 2025 , 55 ( 4 ): 912 - 931 .

许素琼 . 新型城镇化对农业绿色全要素生产率的低门槛效用实证分析 [J ] . 江苏农业科学 , 2019 , 47 ( 17 ): 324 - 329 .

Xu S Q . Empirical analysis of the low threshold effect of new urbanization on agricultural green total factor productivity [J ] . Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences , 2019 , 47 ( 17 ): 324 - 329 .

张洪振 , 李桐林 , 李书奎 . 城乡居民收入视角下新型城镇化对共同富裕的作用效果研究 [J ] . 西南大学学报(自然科学版) , 2024 , 46 ( 12 ): 142 - 155 .

Zhang H Z , Li T L , Li S K . Study on the effect of new urbanization on common prosperity from the perspective of urban and rural resident income [J ] . Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition) , 2024 , 46 ( 12 ): 142 - 155 .

刘晓琼 , 张雪静 , 杨华 , 等 . 黄河流域资源型地区可持续农业与农村发展时空特征与耦合协调机制——基于42个地级市的实证分析 [J ] . 西北大学学报(自然科学版) , 2025 , 55 ( 4 ): 726 - 739 .

Liu X Q , Zhang X J , Yang H , et al . Spatio-temporal characteristics and coupled coordination mechanism of sustainable agriculture and rural development of resource-based areas in the Yellow River Basin: An empirical analysis based on 42 prefecture-level cities [J ] . Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition) , 2025 , 55 ( 4 ): 726 - 739 .

蒙昱竹 , 郝振龙 , 徐杨康 . 新型城镇化试点政策对区域协调发展的影响效应及作用机制研究 [J ] . 西安理工大学学报 , 2025 , 41 ( 3 ): 336 - 347 .

Meng Y Z , Hao Z L , Xu Y K . Research on the impact effects of and mechanisms for new urbanization pilot policies on regional coordinated development [J ] . Journal of Xi'an University of Technology , 2025 , 41 ( 3 ): 336 - 347 .

Schultz T W . Investment in human capital [J ] . The American Economic Review , 1961 ( 1 ): 1 - 17 .

江艇 . 因果推断经验研究中的中介效应与调节效应 [J ] . 中国工业经济 , 2022 ( 5 ): 100 - 120 .

Jiang T . Mediating effects and moderating effects in causal inference [J ] . China Industrial Economics , 2022 ( 5 ): 100 - 120 .

Tone K . A slacks-based measure of efficiency in data envelopment analysis [J ] . European Journal of Operational Research , 2001 , 130 ( 3 ): 498 - 509 .

刘亦文 , 欧阳莹 , 蔡宏宇 . 中国农业绿色全要素生产率测度及时空演化特征研究 [J ] . 数量经济技术经济研究 , 2021 ( 5 ): 39 - 56 .

Liu Y W , Ouyang Y , Cai H Y . Evaluation of China's agricultural green TFP and its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics [J ] . Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics , 2021 ( 5 ): 39 - 56 .

郭峰 , 王靖一 , 王芳 , 等 . 测度中国数字普惠金融发展：指数编制与空间特征 [J ] . 经济学(季刊) , 2020 , 19 ( 4 ): 1401 - 1418 .

Guo F , Wang J Y , Wang F , et al . Measuring China's digital financial inclusion: Index compilation and spatial characteristics [J ] . China Economic Quarterly , 2020 , 19 ( 4 ): 1401 - 1418 .

徐雪 , 王永瑜 . 中国乡村振兴水平测度、区域差异分解及动态演进 [J ] . 数量经济技术经济研究 , 2022 , 39 ( 5 ): 64 - 83 .

Xu X , Wang Y Y . Measurement, regional difference and dynamic evolution of rural revitalization level in China [J ] . Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics , 2022 , 39 ( 5 ): 64 - 83 .

Li P , Lu Y , Wang J . Doesflattening government improve economic performance? Evidence from China [J ] . Journal of Development Economics , 2016 , 123 : 18 - 37 .

王伟 , 毛伟 , 肖华 , 等 . 生态循环农业试点的农业碳减排效应 [J ] . 资源科学 , 2025 , 47 ( 6 ): 1341 - 1357 .

Wang W , Mao W , Xiao H , et al . Agricultural carbon reduction effects of the ecological circular agriculture pilot [J ] . Resources Science , 2025 , 47 ( 6 ): 1341 - 1357 .

Rosenbaum P R , Rubin D B . Constructing a control group using multivariate matched sampling methods that incorporate the propensity score [J ] . The American Statistician , 1985 , 39 ( 1 ): 33 - 38 .

曾龙 , 付振奇 . 中国城乡收入差距对农业生产率的影响——基于农村劳动力转移与农村居民收入的双重视角 [J ] . 江汉论坛 , 2021 ( 11 ): 15 - 24 .

安红霞 . 数字普惠金融对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响机制及空间溢出效应 [J ] . 江苏农业科学 , 2024 , 52 ( 18 ): 288 - 296 .

An H X . Influence mechanism and spatial spillover effect of digital inclusive finance on agricultural green total factor productivity [J ] . Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences , 2024 , 52 ( 18 ): 288 - 296 .

郑甘甜 , 陈池波 , 陈胜 , 等 . 农村人力资本对农业环境全要素生产率影响的实证分析 [J ] . 统计与决策 , 2023 , 39 ( 8 ): 57 - 62 .

浏览量

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

宁夏农业现代化与新型城镇化耦合协调关系测度

基于土地利用变化的北方农牧交错带生境质量时空演变及模拟预测

村域居民点用地多功能认知及其空间图谱解析：以苏州陆巷为例

退耕还林工程实施背景下黄土高原大气水循环研究

乡村振兴战略背景下乡村空心化评价及其驱动机制研究：以四川省为例