时间序列下土遗址片状剥离病害量化评估及预测

杜昱民; 董文强; 郭亚旭; 陆志恒; 赵泽源; 吴梦雨; 张悦

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-02-007

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时间序列下土遗址片状剥离病害量化评估及预测

文化遗产保护 | 更新时间：2026-05-11

- 时间序列下土遗址片状剥离病害量化评估及预测
- Quantitative assessment and prediction of the scaling off on earthen sites under the temporal dimension
- 西北大学学报（自然科学版） 2026年56卷第2期页码：286-300
- 作者机构：
  
  1.西北工业大学　文化遗产研究院/考古探测与文物保护技术教育部重点实验室，陕西　西安　710072
  2.上海大学　文化遗产与信息管理学院/硅酸盐质文物保护教育部重点实验室，上海　200444
  3.西北工业大学　公共政策与管理学院，陕西　西安　710072
  4.西北工业大学　伦敦玛丽女王大学工程学院，陕西　西安　710072
  5.西北工业大学　力学与交通运载工程学院，陕西　西安　710072
- 作者简介：
  
  杜昱民，男，博士，副教授，从事土遗址保护研究，duym@nwpu.edu.cn。
  董文强，男，博士，研究员，从事文物保护技术与文化遗产研究，dongwq@nwpu.edu.cn。
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学青年基金(42202313);陕西省社会科学基金年度项目(2021G014);陕西省“两链”融合重点专项(2022LL-ZD-01)
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-02-007
  中图分类号： TU361
- 收稿：2025-12-01，
  
  修回：2026-01-28，
  
  纸质出版：2026-04-25
- 稿件说明：
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杜昱民, 董文强, 郭亚旭, 等. 时间序列下土遗址片状剥离病害量化评估及预测[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026,56(2):286-300.

DU Yumin, DONG Wenqiang, GUO Yaxu, et al. Quantitative assessment and prediction of the scaling off on earthen sites under the temporal dimension[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2026, 56(2): 286-300.
杜昱民, 董文强, 郭亚旭, 等. 时间序列下土遗址片状剥离病害量化评估及预测[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026,56(2):286-300. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-02-007.

DU Yumin, DONG Wenqiang, GUO Yaxu, et al. Quantitative assessment and prediction of the scaling off on earthen sites under the temporal dimension[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2026, 56(2): 286-300. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2026-02-007.

摘要

片状剥离作为土遗址最为典型且严重的病害类型，严重威胁遗址的安全赋存。在环境与遗址土协同作用下，片状剥离具有明显的时空发育特征，针对时间维度下片状剥离病害开展量化评估与预测研究是对其实施加固保护的重要前提和指南。研究遴选陕西省内半干旱、半湿润环境下，战国、汉、隋、唐、宋、明、清等7个历史朝代修筑的19处土遗址发育的片状剥离作为研究对象，通过现场调查测试收集病害平面和剖面发育指标、土体水盐含量、土体表面硬度、遗址修筑时期历史温度变化等评估指标，结合热力图和层次分析法（AHP）计算指标权重，利用逼近理想解排序法（TOPSIS）实现对土遗址片状剥离发育程度的量化评估，进而应用LSTM算法实现时间序列下片状剥离病害的智能预测。研究结果表明，19处土遗址中有3处片状剥离发育等级为高级，2处为低级，其余14处为中等程度。基于评估结果，利用LSTM模型对前90%的样本点进行训练，并对最后2处遗址进行预测，预测结果的均方根误差（RMSE）为0.044 424，平均绝对误差（MAE）为0.037 046，平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）为14.803 1%，决定系数（

）为0.844 23，评估及预测结果具有较高准确性和合理性，为后续土遗址片状剥离的保护加固工作提供了科学依据和实践指导，并为其他土遗址典型病害的量化研究提供了模块示范。

Abstract

Scaling off is one of the most typical and severe forms of deteriorations on earthen sites，posing a significant threat to their long-term preservation. This phenomenon exhibits distinct spatio-temporal developmental characteristics，influenced by the complex interactions between environmental factors and the intrinsic properties of earthen materials. A comprehensive quantitative assessment and predictive analysis of scaling off under the temporal dimension are essential to guide effective conservation strategies. This study focused on the scaling off observed on the 19 earthen sites in Shaanxi Province，located in semi-arid and semi-humid environments，which were constructed during seven historical dynasties，including the Warring States，Han，Sui，Tang，Song，Ming，and Qing. Through field investigations and geotechnical tests，we collected characteristic indicators of scaling off，including planar and cross-sectional metrics，soil water and salt content，surface hardness，and historical temperature variations corresponding to the construction periods of the sites. Using heat maps and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)，the weight of each indicator was calculated. After that，a quantitative assessment of the scaling-off development level was achieved by using the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). Finally，the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm was applied to realize the intelligent prediction of scaling off under the temporal dimension. The results revealed that the scaling off development level for 3 sites was categorized as high，2 sites in the low level，and other 14 sites in the medium level. By using the first 90% sample points for the training of LSTM model，the last two sites were effectively predicted having the root mean square error (RMSE)，mean absolute error (MAE)，mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and absolute variance (

) of 0.044 424，0.037 046，14.803 1% and 0.844 23 respectively. The evaluation and prediction resu

lts are accurate and reasonable，providing a scientific foundation and practical guidance for subsequent conservation work of scaling off in earthen sites，and it offers a modular demonstration for the quantitative research of other types of deterioration in earthen sites.

关键词

Keywords

references

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