市场分割的时空格局、趋势预测及其影响因素：以中国287个城市为例

庄汝龙; 职梦露; 张朝阳; 杨洁

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-06-017

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市场分割的时空格局、趋势预测及其影响因素：以中国287个城市为例

青年编委专刊 | 更新时间：2026-01-02

- 市场分割的时空格局、趋势预测及其影响因素：以中国287个城市为例
- The spatial-temporal pattern, trend prediction and influencing factors of market segmentation: A case study of 287 cities in China
- 西北大学学报（自然科学版） 2025年55卷第6期页码：1410-1428
- 作者机构：
  
  1.宁波大学　商学院，浙江　宁波　315211
  2.江南大学　商学院，江苏　无锡　214122
  3.南京大学　商学院，江苏　南京　210008
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "庄汝龙，博士，宁波大学副教授、特聘研究员，硕士生导师，浙江大学访问学者，中国区域经济学会理事，中国技术经济学会高级会员，中国地理学会会员。宁波开放型经济研究院、宁波大学区域经济研究基地和中东欧经贸合作研究院骨干研究员。主要研究领域为区域与城市经济、资源环境经济以及区域治理等。主持和承担国家级、省市级科研项目40余项，在国内外知名学术期刊发表论文40余篇。同时，在浙江大学出版社、商务印书馆、中国社会出版社出版著作3部。入选浙江省社科学者专家库、宁波市哲学社会科学专家库、浙江省生态文明建设领域专家暨国家绿色技术交易中心绿色技术专家、2024年度全国研究生教育评估监测专家、2023年度全国本科毕业论文抽检评审专家库专家。2020年被认定为宁波市高层次人才，2024年入选宁波市甬江人才工程领军拔尖人才项目，2024年获聘湖北省长江文化研究院“特约研究员”，获评“长江文化大使”荣誉称号。" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金(42501194)
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-06-017
  中图分类号： F124
- 收稿：2025-08-14，
  
  纸质出版：2025-12-25
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
庄汝龙, 职梦露, 张朝阳, 等. 市场分割的时空格局、趋势预测及其影响因素：以中国287个城市为例[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025,55(6):1410-1428.

ZHUANG Rulong, ZHI Menglu, ZHANG Chaoyang, et al. The spatial-temporal pattern, trend prediction and influencing factors of market segmentation: A case study of 287 cities in China[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2025, 55(6): 1410-1428.
庄汝龙, 职梦露, 张朝阳, 等. 市场分割的时空格局、趋势预测及其影响因素：以中国287个城市为例[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025,55(6):1410-1428. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-06-017.

ZHUANG Rulong, ZHI Menglu, ZHANG Chaoyang, et al. The spatial-temporal pattern, trend prediction and influencing factors of market segmentation: A case study of 287 cities in China[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2025, 55(6): 1410-1428. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-06-017.

摘要

打破市场分割，加快建设国内统一大市场，不仅有利于资源和要素在更大范围内畅通流动，而且是释放内需潜力、充分发挥全国超大规模市场独特优势的重要抓手。基于2011—2021年全国287个城市的居民消费价格指数，利用相对价格法构造全国各城市的市场分割指数，从多元视角对全国市场分割水平的时空格局演变特征进行分析，并利用空间计量模型实证检验影响市场分割水平的因素。研究发现：①全国市场分割水平呈现出波动下降的趋势，且在不同区域表现出空间异质性，具体而言，西部地区的市场分割水平长期维持在较高水平，东部地区偶尔跃居首位，而中部地区则长期处于较低的市场分割水平；②国内市场分割的空间集聚特征呈现“先减弱，后增强，再减弱”的波动变化趋势，对比首尾2年发现，两极化趋势显著降低；③通过趋势预测发现，国内大多数省份未来的市场一体化水平都将有所提升，只有山东、山西、陕西等个别省份的市场分割水平出现了递增；④根据回归结果，全国287个城市间的市场分割存在显著正向的空间溢出效应；⑤提高人均实际收入水平和公共服务水平有助于破除市场分割壁垒，财政分权和外商直接投资则在一定程度上会加速市场分割。

Abstract

Breaking market segmentation and speeding up the construction of a unified domestic market are not only conducive to the smooth flow of resources and factors in a wider scope

but also an important starting point for releasing the potential of domestic demand and giving full play to the unique advantages of the national super-large-scale market. Based on the consumer price index of 287 cities in China from 2011 to 2021

this paper constructs the market segmentation index of cities in China by using the relative price method

describes and analyzes the evolution characteristics of the spatial-temporal pattern of the national market segmentation level from a pluralistic perspective

and empirically tests the factors affecting the market segmentation level by using the spatial econometric model. The findings are as follows: ① The national market segmentation level shows a trend of fluctuation and decline

and it shows spatial heterogeneity in different regions. Specifically

the level of market segmentation in the western region has remained consistently high

while the eastern region occasionally ranks first

and the central region has consistently maintained a relatively low level of market segmentation. ②The spatial agglomeration characteristics of domestic market segmentation show a fluctuating trend of "first weakening

then strengthening

and then weakening"

and it is found that the polarization trend decreased significantly compared with the first and last two years; ③ Through the trend forecast

the future market integration level of most provinces in China will be improved

and only individual provinces

such as Shandong

Shanxi

Shaanxi have an increasing market segmentation level; ④ According to the regression results

the market segmentation among 287 cities in China has a significant positive spatial spillover effect; ⑤ Rising per capita real income and improving public service level contribute to dismantling market segmentation barriers

whereas fiscal decentralization and foreign direct investment may

to some extent

accelerate market segmentation.

关键词

Keywords

references

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