煤电CCUS项目运行的经济特征与模拟

史贝贝; 蔡子建; 康蓉; 李楠; 刘永平

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-05-005

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煤电CCUS项目运行的经济特征与模拟

碳捕集、利用与封存 | 更新时间：2025-10-31

- 煤电CCUS项目运行的经济特征与模拟
- Simulating the economic feature of CCUS operations in coal-based power generation
- 西北大学学报（自然科学版） 2025年55卷第5期页码：994-1008
- 作者机构：
  
  1.西北大学　榆林碳中和学院，陕西　西安　710069
  2.国家能源集团锦界能源有限责任公司，陕西　神木　719319
- 作者简介：
  
  史贝贝，男，副教授，从事气候变化与低碳研究，shibeibei@nwu.edu.cn。
  蔡子建，男，从事气候变化与低碳研究，202324175@stumail.nwu.edu.cn。
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金青年项目(72103163);教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助项目(22JHQ066);陕西省社会科学基金年度项目(2023D011);陕西省教育厅科学研究计划——青年创新团队项目(23JP166)
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-05-005
  中图分类号： TM61
- 收稿：2025-06-16，
  
  纸质出版：2025-10-25
- 稿件说明：
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史贝贝, 蔡子建, 康蓉, 等. 煤电CCUS项目运行的经济特征与模拟[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025,55(5):994-1008.

SHI Beibei, CAI Zijian, KANG Rong, et al. Simulating the economic feature of CCUS operations in coal-based power generation[J]. Journal of northwest university (natural science edition), 2025, 55(5): 994-1008.
史贝贝, 蔡子建, 康蓉, 等. 煤电CCUS项目运行的经济特征与模拟[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025,55(5):994-1008. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-05-005.

SHI Beibei, CAI Zijian, KANG Rong, et al. Simulating the economic feature of CCUS operations in coal-based power generation[J]. Journal of northwest university (natural science edition), 2025, 55(5): 994-1008. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-05-005.

摘要

CCUS项目运行的经济性不足和激励政策体系不健全是限制煤电CCUS项目发展的重要瓶颈。运用ITEAM-CCUS模型评估CCUS项目运行的全流程经济特征，并以锦界电厂150 kt/a的CCUS示范项目为案例进行深度解析，识别单一激励政策需求强度和组合政策综合效果的差异化策略及其对CCUS项目运行的经济可行性。研究发现：①ITEAM-CCUS模型评估结果表明煤电CCUS项目具有较大的减排潜力，且在地区和企业层面上均具有良好的减排规模效应；②案例解析表明，CCUS项目在早期示范阶段，宜实行发电小时数补偿、上网电价补贴等确定性的激励政策，而在运行推广阶段，实行碳交易和绿色电力交易等市场化政策；③不同的政策组合对CCUS项目平准化捕集成本影响存在差异性，综合性政策体系对CCUS项目运行有极大的支撑作用。建议增加对CCUS项目运行的经济政策配套，并注重在不同阶段采取差异化的政策，以期推动煤电CCUS运行的经济可行性。

Abstract

The insufficient economic viability of CCUS project operations and the inadequate incentive policy system are significant bottlenecks hindering the development of coal-based CCUS projects. This study employs the ITEAM-CCUS model to evaluate the comprehensive economic characteristics of CCUS project operations and conducts an in-depth analysis using the Jinjie Power Plant 150 kt/a CCUS demonstration project as a case study. The research identifies differentiated strategies for the required intensity of single incentive policies and the comprehensive effects of policy combinations

as well as their impact on the economic feasibility of CCUS project operations. The findings reveal that: ①the ITEAM-CCUS model assessment indicates that coal-based CCUS projects possess substantial emission reduction potential and demonstrate favorable economies of scale at both regional and enterprise levels; ②the case analysis suggests that during the early demonstration phase of CCUS projects

deterministic incentive policies such as generation hour compensation and feed-in tariff subsidies should be implemented. In contrast

market-oriented policies like carbon trading and green power trading are more suitable for the operational promotion phase; ③different policy combinations exhibit varying impacts on the levelized capture cost of CCUS projects

with a comprehensive policy system significantly supporting CCUS project operations. The study recommends enhancing economic policy support for CCUS project operations and adopting differentiated policies at various stages to improve the economic feasibility of coal-fired CCUS operations.

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