人类活动对黄河中游径流变化影响的定量归因——以窟野河流域为例

何毅; 蒋晓辉; 胡希有; 袁璋; 徐新文

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-009

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

人类活动对黄河中游径流变化影响的定量归因——以窟野河流域为例

黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展 | 更新时间：2025-09-03

- 人类活动对黄河中游径流变化影响的定量归因——以窟野河流域为例
- Quantitative attribution of influence of human activities on runoff change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River——A case study of Kuye River Basin
- 西北大学学报（自然科学版） 2025年55卷第4期页码：798-807
- 作者机构：
  
  1.自然资源部矿山地质灾害成灾机理与防控重点实验室，陕西　西安　710054
  2.西北大学城市与环境学院，陕西　西安　710127
  3.陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室，陕西　西安　710127
  4.西安市黄河流域环境模拟及生态健康重点实验室，陕西　西安　710127
  5.陕西省生态地质调查中心，陕西　西安　710068
- 作者简介：
  
  何毅，男，副教授，博士，博士生导师，从事生态水文和水土保持相关研究，yihe@nwu.edu.cn。
- 基金信息：
  
  自然资源部矿山地质灾害成灾机理与防控重点实验室开放课题基金(SKF2024-03);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2021JQ-449)
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-009
  中图分类号： P333
- 收稿日期：2025-05-11，
  
  纸质出版日期：2025-08-25
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
何毅, 蒋晓辉, 胡希有, 等. 人类活动对黄河中游径流变化影响的定量归因——以窟野河流域为例[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025,55(4):798-807.

HE Yi, JIANG Xiaohui, HU Xiyou, et al. Quantitative attribution of influence of human activities on runoff change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River——A case study of Kuye River Basin[J]. Journal of northwest university (natural science edition), 2025, 55(4): 798-807.
何毅, 蒋晓辉, 胡希有, 等. 人类活动对黄河中游径流变化影响的定量归因——以窟野河流域为例[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025,55(4):798-807. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-009.

HE Yi, JIANG Xiaohui, HU Xiyou, et al. Quantitative attribution of influence of human activities on runoff change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River——A case study of Kuye River Basin[J]. Journal of northwest university (natural science edition), 2025, 55(4): 798-807. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-009.

摘要

黄河流域作为中华文明的重要发源地，不仅是中国生态安全体系的关键组成部分，亦是人口聚集和经济活动的重要区域。在国家整体发展格局及社会主义现代化建设进程中，该流域占据着至关重要的战略地位，对区域可持续发展和生态安全具有深远影响。气候变化和人类活动对河川径流产生综合影响，不易区分它们各自对径流变化的贡献。该研究利用1960—2021年黄河中游窟野河流域温家川水文站62年气候、径流资料，建立了一种基于相似降水量和潜在蒸散发量配对年组的方法来定量评估人类活动对河川径流的影响。配对年组的相似气候前提由相似的数量（年际差异小于2.0%）和相似的过程（年内变化显著性水平小于0.05）来表征。结果表明，在研究时段内，径流在4个配对年组中，2组呈下降趋势，另外2组呈上升趋势。利用研究区土地利用/土地覆被等资料进行分析，可以很好地定量解释人类活动对窟野河流域径流变化的影响。该方法可与传统的水文研究方法相结合使用，更好地为流域水资源管理提供理论依据。

Abstract

The Yellow River Basin is an important birthplace of the Chinese nation and Chinese civilization

constitutes an important ecological security barrier in China

and is also an important region for population activities and economic development

and has a pivotal strategic position in the overall situation of national development and socialist modernization. Climate change and human activities have combined effects on runoff

and it is difficult to distinguish their respective contributions to runoff change. Based on 62 years of climate and runoff data from Wenjiachuan hydrology Station in the Kuye River Basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1960 to 2021

a method based on paired years groups of similar precipitation and potential evapotranspiration was established to quantitatively assess the influence of human activities on runoff. The similar climate premises of the paired year groups were characterized by similar quantities (interannual difference less than 2.0%) and similar processes (significance level of annual change less than 0.05). The results showed that

during the study period

the runoff in 2 groups showed a downward trend and the other 2 groups showed an upward trend. Using land use/land cover analysis

the effects of human activities on runoff change in the Kuye River Basin can be well explained quantitatively. This method can be combined with the traditional hydrological methods to provide a better theoretical basis for water resources management in the basin.

关键词

Keywords

references

LIU J G , WANG H , LAI H X . Deciphering the response mechanism of global river flow seasonality to climate change [J ] . Chinese Science Bulletin , 2024 , 69 ( 25 ): 3686 - 3688 .

BLOSCHL G , BIERKENS P , CHAMBEL A , et al . Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH)-a community perspective [J ] . Hydrological Sciences Journal , 2019 , 64 ( 10 ): 1141 - 1158 .

HADDELAND I , HEINKE J , BIEMANS H , et al . Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change [J ] . Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America , 2014 , 111 ( 9 ): 3251 - 3256 .

HE Y , QIU H J , SONG J X , et al . Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Bahe River watershed of the Qinling Mountains, China [J ] . Sustainable Cities and Society , 2019 , 51 ( 1/2/3 ): 101729 .

ZHANG Y R , HE Y , SONG J X . Effects of climate change and land use on runoff in the Huangfuchuan Basin, China [J ] . Journal of Hydrology , 2023 , 626 : 130195 .

WALLING D E , FANG D . Recent trends in the suspended sediment loads of the world's rivers [J ] . Global and Planetary Change , 2003 , 39 ( 1/2 ): 111 - 126 .

LI L , NI J R , CHANG F , et al . Global trends in water and sediment fluxes of the world's large rivers [J ] . Science Bulletin , 2020 , 65 ( 1 ): 62 - 69 .

HE Y , WANG F , MU X M , et al . An assessment of human versus climatic impacts on Jing River Basin, Loess Plateau, China [J ] . Advances in Meteorology , 2015 , 2015 ( 1 ): 478739 .

HE Y , WANG F , MU X M , et al . Human activity and climate variability impacts on sediment discharge and runoff in the Yellow River of China [J ] . Theoretical and Applied Climatology , 2016 , 129 : 1 - 10 .

BROWN A E , ZHANG L , MCMAHON T A , et al . A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation [J ] . Journal of Hydrology , 2005 , 310 ( 1/2/3/4 ): 28 - 61 .

郭巧玲 , 陈新华 , 窦春锋 , 等 . 近60年来窟野河全流域年径流变化及其影响因素分析研究 [J ] . 水土保持学报 , 2016 , 30 ( 3 ): 90 - 95 .

GUO Q L , CHEN X H , DOU C F , et al . Study on the variation of annual runoff and influencing factors in Kuye River during the past 60 years [J ] . Journal of Soil and Water Conservation , 2016 , 30 ( 3 ): 90 - 95 .

王飞 , 穆兴民 , 李锐 , 等 . 相似性降水条件下北洛河水沙变化特征 [J ] . 水资源与水工程学报 , 2008 , 19 ( 6 ): 36 - 40 .

WANG F , MU X M , LI R , et al . Change characteristic of the runoff and sediment under the similar precipitation condition in the Beiluohe River [J ] . Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering , 2008 , 19 ( 6 ): 36 - 40 .

燕慧婷 , 王飞 , 何毅 , 等 . 人类活动对黄河河源区水沙变化影响评价 [J ] . 泥沙研究 , 2015 , 40 ( 2 ): 40 - 46 .

YAN H T , WANG F , HE Y , et al . Impact assessment of human activities on runoff and sediment between paired years with similar weather condition in the source of the Yellow River [J ] . Journal of Sediment Research , 2015 , 40 ( 2 ): 40 - 46 .

杨智勇 , 牛健植 , 樊登星 , 等 . 基于SWAT和PLUS模型的窟野河流域径流对土地利用变化的响应及预测 [J ] . 水土保持学报 , 2024 , 38 ( 1 ): 289 - 299 .

YANG Z Y , NIU J Z , FAN D X , et al . Responseand-prediction of runoff to landuse change in Kuye River Basin based on SWAT and PLUS model [J ] . Journal of Soil and Water Conservation , 2024 , 38 ( 1 ): 289 - 299 .

刘彦随 , 夏军 , 王永生 , 等 . 黄河流域人地系统协调与高质量发展 [J ] . 西北大学学报(自然科学版) , 2022 , 52 ( 3 ): 357 - 370 .

LIU Y S , XIA J , WANG Y S , et al . Coordinated human-earth system and high-quality development in Yellow River Basin [J ] . Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition) , 2022 , 52 ( 3 ): 357 - 370 .

何毅 . 黄河河口镇至潼关区间降雨变化及其水沙效应 [D ] . 杨凌 : 西北农林科技大学 , 2016 .

HE Y , MU X M , JIANG X H , et al . Runoff variation and influencing factors in the Kuye River Basin of the Middle Yellow River [J ] . Frontiers in Environmental Science , 2022 , 10 : 877535 .

张淑兰 , 王彦辉 , 于澎涛 , 等 . 定量区分人类活动和降水量变化对泾河上游径流变化的影响 [J ] . 水土保持学报 , 2010 , 24 ( 4 ): 53 - 58 .

ZHANG S L , WANG Y H , YU P T , et al . Study for separating the impact of precipitation variation and human activities on runoff change of the upper reaches of Jing River [J ] . Journal of Soil and Water Conservation , 2010 , 24 ( 4 ): 53 - 58 .

冉大川 , 刘斌 , 罗全华 , 等 . 泾河流域水土保持措施减水减沙作用分析 [J ] . 人民黄河 , 2001 , 23 ( 2 ): 6 - 8 .

RAN D C , LIU B , LUO Q H , et al . Hydrological analysis on the variability of runoff and sedimentin Jinghe watershed [J ] . Yellow River , 2001 , 23 ( 2 ): 6 - 8 .

邱国玉 , 尹婧 , 熊育久 , 等 . 北方干旱化和土地利用变化对泾河流域径流的影响 [J ] . 自然资源学报 , 2008 , 23 ( 2 ): 211 - 218 .

QIU G Y , YIN J , XIONG Y J , et al . Studies on the effects of climatic warming-drying trend and land use change on the runoff in the Jinghe River Basin [J ] . Journal of Natural Resources , 2008 , 23 ( 2 ): 211 - 218 .

刘昌明 , 郑红星 , 王中根 , 等 . 基于HIMS的水文过程多尺度综合模拟 [J ] . 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版) , 2010 , 46 ( 3 ): 268 - 273 .

LIU C M , ZHENG H X , WANG Z G , et al . Multi-scaleintegrated simulation of hydrological processes using HIMS with verifed case studies [J ] . Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science) , 2010 , 46 ( 3 ): 268 - 273 .

ZENG Y , JING T , XU B , et al . Vectorized dataset of silted land formed by check dams on the Chinese Loess Plateau [J ] . Scientific Data , 2024 , 11 ( 1 ): 348 .

王群星 . 基于相似气候特征分析的人类活动对延河流域水沙变化的影响 [D ] . 杨凌 : 西北农林科技大学 , 2010 .

WANG F , MU X M , HESSEL R , et al . Runoff and sediment load of the Yan River, China: Changes over the last 60 yr [J ] . Hydrology and Earth System Sciences , 2013 , 17 ( 7 ): 2515 - 2527 .

ALLEN R G , PEREIA L S , RAES D , et al . Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56 [M ] Rome : FAO , 1998 : 1 - 300 .

蒋晓辉 , 高昊祺 , 雷宇昕 . 近40年来窟野河流域土地利用类型变化及驱动因素 [J ] . 南水北调与水利科技 , 2020 , 18 ( 4 ): 17 - 38 .

JIANG X H , GAO H Q , LEI Y X . Changes and driving factors of land use types in Kuye River Basin in recent 40 years [J ] . South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science &. Technology , 2020 , 18 ( 4 ): 17 - 38 .

张永强 , 李聪聪 . 植被变化对中国北方水文过程影响的研究进展探讨 [J ] . 西北大学学报(自然科学版) , 2020 , 50 ( 3 ): 420 - 426 .

ZHANG Y Q , LI C C . The research progress on the influence of vegetation changeon regional hydrological processes in Northern China [J ] . Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition) , 2020 , 50 ( 3 ): 420 - 426 .

张红娟 , 延军平 , 周立花 , 等 . 黄土高原淤地坝对水资源影响：以绥德县韭园沟典型坝地为例 [J ] . 西北大学学报(自然科学版) , 2007 , 37 ( 3 ): 475 - 478 .

ZHANG H J , YAN J P , ZHOU L H , et al . The influence of loess plateau soil-saving dam on water resources: An example of typical soil-saving dam of Jiuyuangou in suide county [J ] . Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition) , 2007 , 37 ( 3 ): 475 - 478 .

郭嘉嘉 . 淤地坝建设对流域下垫面特征及水沙效应的影响 [D ] . 西安 : 西安理工大学 , 2023 .

浏览量

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

近20年来黄土高原蒸散发变化规律及其驱动因素

陕西省土地资源承载力时空演变格局研究

基于县域尺度土地利用碳排放的时空分异及影响因素研究

1937—2018年岷江上游径流演变特征分析

植被变化对中国北方水文过程影响的研究进展探讨