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基于多区域投入产出和LMDI模型的黄河流域水足迹时空演变及驱动因素分析
Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of water footprint in the Yellow River Basin based on multi-regional input-output and LMDI models
- 西北大学学报（自然科学版） 2025年55卷第4期 页码：692-708
- 作者机构：
1.兰州大学 资源环境学院西部环境教育部重点实验室，甘肃 兰州 730000
2.兰州大学 黄河流域绿色发展研究院，甘肃 兰州 730000
3.兰州大学 碳达峰碳中和研究院，甘肃 兰州 730000
4.郑州航空港外国语高级中学，河南 郑州 450000
- 作者简介：
[ "张子龙，教授，博士生导师，兰州大学地理系副主任、黄河流域绿色发展研究院副院长、碳达峰碳中和研究院院长，研究方向为经济地理与空间规划、产业生态与资源管理、减贫与区域可持续发展。兼任中国地理学会城市与区域管理专业委员会副主任、经济地理专业委员会委员，中国城市规划学会流域空间规划分会委员，中国区域科学协会理事，中国生态学会产业生态专业委员会委员，担任Regional Sustainability、《世界地理研究》期刊青年编委，RCR、JCLP、ESPR等期刊审稿人。主持完成国家自然科学基金、国家自然科学基金重大项目课题、国家重点研发项目子课题4项，在CSSCI、SCI、SSCI期刊上发表论文80余篇。获得国家扶贫开发工作成效第三方评估先进个人、甘肃省科技进步二等奖、德国绿色精英青年科学家奖等奖项。" ]
- 基金信息：国家自然科学基金(72050001)
DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-002
中图分类号： TV213.4收稿日期：2025-06-16，
纸质出版日期：2025-08-25
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
张子龙, 张意萍, 吕诗雨, 等. 基于多区域投入产出和LMDI模型的黄河流域水足迹时空演变及驱动因素分析[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025,55(4):692-708.
ZHANG Zilong, ZHANG Yiping, LYU Shiyu, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of water footprint in the Yellow River Basin based on multi-regional input-output and LMDI models[J]. Journal of northwest university (natural science edition), 2025, 55(4): 692-708.
张子龙, 张意萍, 吕诗雨, 等. 基于多区域投入产出和LMDI模型的黄河流域水足迹时空演变及驱动因素分析[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025,55(4):692-708. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-002.
ZHANG Zilong, ZHANG Yiping, LYU Shiyu, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of water footprint in the Yellow River Basin based on multi-regional input-output and LMDI models[J]. Journal of northwest university (natural science edition), 2025, 55(4): 692-708. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2025-04-002.
摘要
水资源是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的关键资源，而水足迹作为衡量区域水资源利用压力的关键指标，可以综合反映黄河流域水资源利用状况。因此，对黄河流域水足迹时空格局、区域间转移特征以及水足迹变化背后驱动因素的探究，可为全流域区域间协同提升水资源节约集约利用水平的相关政策制定提供科学依据。此研究构建了地级市尺度水资源多区域投入产出模型，分析了2012、2015和2017年黄河流域水足迹的时空格局演变和城市间虚拟水转移特征，并采用对数迪氏指数（LMDI）模型探究水足迹变化的社会经济驱动因素及其影响作用。研究发现：黄河流域水足迹在时间上整体呈先增长后下降的倒“U”型演变趋势，在空间上呈现“中下游高，上游低”的区域格局；虚拟水转移主要集中在省域内部，且具有明显的经济梯度导向特征；经济增长和技术因素等是水足迹变化的主要驱动因素，且各因素对水足迹的影响存在显著的空间异质性。基于驱动机制差异，将78个城市划分为5类水足迹驱动模式，为分区施策、精准提升流域城市节水效率提供了科学依据。
Abstract
Water resources are the key resources for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. As a key indicator for measuring the pressure on regional water resources utilization
the water footprint can comprehensively reflect the status of water resources utilization in the Yellow River Basin. Therefore
analyzing the spatiotemporal patterns of water footprint
inter-regional transfer characteristics
and the driving factors of water footprint changes can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of policies to improve the level of water conservation and intensive utilization in the whole basin region. The paper constructed a multi-regional input-output model of water resources at the prefecture-level city scale to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of water footprint in the Yellow River Basin and the transfer characteristics of virtual water footprint among cities in 2012
2015 and 2017. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model was used to further explore the socio-economic drivers of changes in the water footprint and their impacts. The research finds that the water footprint in the Yellow River Basin shows an overall inverted "U" -shaped evolution trend of first increasing and then decreasing over time
and presents a regional pattern of "higher in the middle and lower reaches and lower in the upper reaches" in space. The transfer of water footprint is mainly concentrated within the provinces
and has obvious economic gradient-oriented characteristics. The level of economic development and technological factors are the main drivers of the change of water footprint
and there is significant spatial heterogeneity in the impacts of these factors on water footprint. Based on the differences in the mechanisms
the 78 cities are divided into five categories of water footprint driving patterns
providing a scientific basis for regionspecific policies and targeted improvements in urban water conservation efficiency within the basin.
关键词
Keywords
references
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