黄河流域资源-人口-产业高质量发展的耦合协调及影响因素分析

董格; 张中华; 王帅; 雷振东

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2024-03-009

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黄河流域资源-人口-产业高质量发展的耦合协调及影响因素分析

黄河流域人地系统协调与可持续发展 | 更新时间：2024-06-17

- 黄河流域资源-人口-产业高质量发展的耦合协调及影响因素分析
- Coupling coordination and influencing factors analysis of high-quality development of " resource-population-industry" in the Yellow River Basin
- 西北大学学报（自然科学版） 2024年54卷第3期页码：434-449
- 作者机构：
  
  西安建筑科技大学　建筑学院，陕西　西安　710055
- 作者简介：
  
  董格，女，博士研究生，从事城市与区域规划研究，donggeslby@163.com。
  张中华，男，教授，博士生导师，从事城市与区域规划等领域研究，zzhdeai@163.com。
- 基金信息：
  
  “十四五”国家重点研发计划重点专项(2022YFC3802801)
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2024-03-009
  中图分类号： TU982
- 纸质出版日期：2024-06-25，
  
  收稿日期：2023-11-30，
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董格, 张中华, 王帅, 等. 黄河流域资源-人口-产业高质量发展的耦合协调及影响因素分析[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024,54(3):434-449.

DONG Ge, ZHANG Zhonghua, WANG Shuai, et al. Coupling coordination and influencing factors analysis of high-quality development of " resource-population-industry" in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2024,54(3):434-449.
董格, 张中华, 王帅, 等. 黄河流域资源-人口-产业高质量发展的耦合协调及影响因素分析[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024,54(3):434-449. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2024-03-009.

DONG Ge, ZHANG Zhonghua, WANG Shuai, et al. Coupling coordination and influencing factors analysis of high-quality development of " resource-population-industry" in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2024,54(3):434-449. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2024-03-009.

摘要

黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展已成为重大国家战略，资源-人口-产业系统的耦合协调高质量发展是实现这一战略目标的重要途径。该文分析了资源-人口-产业高质量发展的内涵，并在此基础上构建了评价指标体系。利用熵权法、耦合协调度模型、空间自相关模型、决策实验室法和解释结构模型法探讨了2015—2021年黄河流域沿线55个地级市资源、人口和产业高质量发展的综合水平、耦合协调时空演变历程及其根本影响因素。研究表明：①黄河流域资源-人口-产业各系统综合发展水平均呈现平稳上升态势；②三者的耦合协调程度普遍较低，但整体呈良性发展趋势，同时在空间上呈现“东高西低”的特征；③黄河流域资源-人口-产业系统的耦合协调度展现出较强的空间正相关性，其中“高-高”集聚区主要集中于流域的下游地区，“低-低”集聚区主要位于流域的上游地区；④在评价指标中，教育支出占财政支出比重，环境规制强度，第二、三产业占GDP比重和科学技术支出占财政支出比重为影响黄河流域资源-人口-产业高质量发展的根本指标因素。基于资源-人口-产业系统高质量发展的耦合关系和识别的关键影响因素，提出相应的策略建议，以期为黄河流域高质量发展提供科学的理论支持和决策基础。

Abstract

Ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin has become a major national strategy. Coupling resources

population and industries systems to coordinate high-quality development is an important way to achieve this strategic goal. The paper analyzes the connotation of high-quality development of " resource-population-industry"

and builds an evaluation index system on this basis. The entropy weight method

coupling coordination model

spatial autocorrelation model

decision laboratory method and interpretive structural model method were used to explore the comprehensive level

quality development of resources

population and industry in 55 prefecture-level cities along the Yellow River Basin from 2015 to 2021. Coupling coordinates the spatiotemporal evolution process and its fundamental influencing factors. Research shows: ① The comprehensive development level of resources

population and industries systems in the Yellow River Basin has shown a steady upward trend; ② The degree of coupling and coordination among the three is generally low

but the overall development trend is benign

at the same time

the spatial characteristics of " high in the east and low in the west" are present; ③ The coupling coordination degree of " resource-population-industry" system in the Yellow River Basin shows a strong positive spatial correlation

" high-high" agglomeration areas are mainly concentrated in the downstream areas of the basin

and " low-low" agglomeration areas are mainly located in the upstream areas of the river basin; ④ Among the evaluation indicators

the proportion of education expenditures in fiscal expenditures

the intensity of environmental regulation

the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries in GDP and the proportion of science and technology expenditures in fiscal expenditures are fundamental indicators that affect the high-quality development of " resource-population-industry" in the Yellow River Basin factor. Based on the coupling relationship of the high-quality development of the " resource-population-industry" system and the identified key influencing factors

corresponding strategic suggestions are put forward

in order to provide scientific theoretical support and decision-making basis for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.

关键词

高质量发展资源-人口-产业耦合协调黄河流域

Keywords

high-quality developmentresource-population-industrycoupling coordinationYellow River Basin

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