变化环境下城市流域径流演变及响应研究

刘艺欣; 李永坤; 张力; 王丽晶; 王红瑞

doi:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2024-03-001

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变化环境下城市流域径流演变及响应研究

海绵城市 | 更新时间：2024-06-17

- 变化环境下城市流域径流演变及响应研究
- Urban watershed runoff evolution and the response under changing environment
- 西北大学学报（自然科学版） 2024年54卷第3期页码：345-354
- 作者机构：
  
  1.北京师范大学　水科学研究院，北京　100875
  2.北京市水科学技术研究院，北京　100048
- 作者简介：
  
  刘艺欣，女，从事水文学及水资源研究，liuyixin@mail.bnu.edu.cn。
  王红瑞，男，教授，博士生导师，从事水资源系统分析研究，henrywang@bnu.edu.cn。
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金(52279005);北京市自然科学基金(8222057)
- DOI：10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2024-03-001
  中图分类号： TV122
- 纸质出版日期：2024-06-25，
  
  收稿日期：2024-01-14，
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刘艺欣, 李永坤, 张力, 等. 变化环境下城市流域径流演变及响应研究[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024,54(3):345-354.

LIU Yixin, LI Yongkun, ZHANG Li, et al. Urban watershed runoff evolution and the response under changing environment[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2024,54(3):345-354.
刘艺欣, 李永坤, 张力, 等. 变化环境下城市流域径流演变及响应研究[J]. 西北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024,54(3):345-354. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2024-03-001.

LIU Yixin, LI Yongkun, ZHANG Li, et al. Urban watershed runoff evolution and the response under changing environment[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2024,54(3):345-354. DOI： 10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2024-03-001.

摘要

流域径流是变化环境的重要响应要素，在气候变化和人类活动的影响下，流域径流量已经发生了深刻变化，研究其演变及响应特征有助于提高人类对变化环境的应对能力。以北运河北京市域主要集水区为研究区，通过分析水文气象观测站近40年水文数据，分析北运河流域降水径流变化趋势，提取洪水场次；引入全球气候模式数据，利用降尺度模型进行降尺度处理，与水文模型结合对流域径流进行了预报分析。结果表明：流域历史降水趋势性变化不明显，径流量呈增大趋势；未来北运河流域(通县站)水资源的变化在气候变化影响下较为明显，随着温度升高、降水增加，流量增大，预测流量在21世纪中期达到新高，为385.1 m

/s；随着辐射强迫的持续增加，水文响应程度也相应增大，北运河流域大部分径流峰值出现在2050时期后期和2090时期。研究结果可为城市流域未来水资源利用、防洪减灾措施与双碳目标的实现路径的探索提供一定的参考。

Abstract

Basin runoff is an important response factor to changing environment. Under the influence of climate change and human activities

watershed runoff has undergone profound changes. Studying its evolution and response characteristics is helpful to improve human’s ability to cope with changing environment. Taking the main catchment area of the Beijing municipal area of the North Canal as the study area

the variation trend of rainfall and runoff in the North Canal basin was analyzed by analyzing the hydrological data of hydrometeorological observation stations in the past 40 years

and the flood field was extracted. The global clim

ate model data is introduced

the downscaling model is used for downscaling

and the runoff forecast is analyzed in combination with the hydrological model. The results show that the historical precipitation trend of the basin is not obvious

and the runoff is increasing. In the future

the change of water resources in the North Canal Basin (Tongxian Station) will be more obvious under the influence of climate change. With the increase of temperature and precipitation

the runoff will increase

and the discharge is predicted to reach a new high of 385.1m

/s in the middle of this century.With the continuous increase of radiative forcing

the degree of hydrological response increases correspondingly

and most of the peak runoff in the North Canal basin occurs in the late 2050 and 2090 periods. The research can provide some reference for the future water resource utilization

flood containment and disaster reduction measures and the realization path of dual carbon targets in urban watershed.

关键词

气候变化流域径流径流预报双碳目标

Keywords

climate changewatershed runoffrunoff forecastcarbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals

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